Every now and then a new forecast will be released that claims some sort of radical change in the overall market share of product X will occur in the next 3, 4, or 5 years. The latest Gartner study fits perfectly into that template. Gartner is saying that Google’s Android OS will rocket to second place among the mobile operating systems by 2012, behind Symbian. It sounds shocking and almost scary for those that make their living off Apple or Windows phones.
What I don’t like about these predictions is simple – no one can see the future. In the tech industry, every time there’s a major challenge produced, the analysts come out with these wild predictions about how the world will change because of this new challenge. For the most part, it never happens. There are some times when it does come true, but that’s so rare. I can recall when IBM launched OS 2.1, the analysts predicted that it would capture some ridiculous share of the market in the next 2 years. They had pages and pages of reasons why this was going to be the case. I think we all know how that turned out. This is just one example. Tech history is littered with failed predictions.
So will Google manage to move all the way to second place in 3 short years? If the competition doesn’t change and role with the tide, then sure. But I really don’t see Palm, Apple, Microsoft, and RIM sitting still over the next few years. Right now, in the mobile space, you need to be moving forward at a aggressive pace or risk being left behind. Microsoft was caught taking a nap recently and are already reacting and pumping things up to the level where is should have been. A couple years ago, Palm was caught napping and came very close to losing everything. They’ve finally started to turn things around and with any luck they could have some serious market share in a couple years.
Apple and Google are here to stay. And for that matter, so is Microsoft, RIM, and Symbian. All of these guys will have a significant share of the market in 3 years time. I’m not so sure about Palm and Linux but that’s a rant for another day. Unfortunately, these forward looking statements are not about to go away. The public and the press need to remember that the future has not been decided yet and that anything can happen.
(source = PPCGeeks)
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